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Hobite Capital

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Hobite Research
Updated September 24, 2026 · BIDU · RMB / USD per ADS中文

Complete Fundamental Research Hub

Baidu

A cash-rich search incumbent attempting to turn AI Cloud, applications and autonomous mobility into durable growth before legacy advertising erosion consumes the transition.

Q2 2026 revenue

RMB 31.3B

-4% YoY · 9.7% op. margin

AI-powered Business

RMB 12.5B

50% of Baidu General Business

Cash + investments

RMB 283B

Q2 2026 reported balance

Reference ADS price

$88.08

1.6x FY2026E P/S

Investment memo

The AI transition versus search erosion

The transition is visible, but not complete

AI-powered Business reached half of Baidu General Business revenue in Q2 2026, yet consolidated revenue still declined as online marketing contracted.

  • AI-powered Business grew 25% year over year to RMB12.5 billion.
  • Online Marketing Services fell 19% to RMB13.1 billion.
  • The key test is whether AI growth becomes incremental rather than merely replacing search economics.

AI Cloud is the near-term proof point

Infrastructure revenue is the fastest measurable bridge from Baidu's model and chip stack to commercial demand.

  • AI Cloud infrastructure grew 50% to RMB7.3 billion.
  • GPU Cloud growth was disclosed at 283%, from a smaller base.
  • Margins and capital intensity remain more important than revenue growth alone.

Liquidity changes the downside

RMB283.1 billion of cash and investments is large relative to the ADS market capitalization, making the quality and availability of those assets central to valuation.

  • Enterprise-value multiples can look materially lower than price-to-sales.
  • Debt, strategic investments and offshore access require a conservative bridge.
  • Capital allocation discipline is essential when the core franchise is in transition.

Optionality is real but should be discounted

ERNIE applications and Apollo Go can create new profit pools, but adoption statistics are not substitutes for audited segment economics.

  • Apollo Go operated in 28 cities with more than 350 million autonomous kilometers.
  • AI applications were approximately RMB2.5 billion in Q2 2026.
  • The base case does not assign a separate venture-style premium to unproven optionality.

Latest quarter

Q2 2026 operating snapshot

Baidu Q2 2026 results. RMB unless stated otherwise; growth rates are year over year.

Gross profit

RMB 12.2B

Operating income

RMB 3.0B

Net income

RMB 2.3B

Operating cash flow

RMB 3.4B

Primary source

AI transition

Commercial traction across cloud, applications and AI marketing

Baidu-defined operating categories are not all reported as audited segments. Q2 2025 category values are reconstructed from disclosed Q2 2026 growth rates and are rounded.

PeriodAI-powered businessAI Cloud infrastructureAI applicationsAI-native marketingOnline marketingBaidu App MAU
Q2 2025RMB 10.0BRMB 4.9BRMB 2.5BRMB 2.6BRMB 16.2B-
Q1 2026RMB 13.6BRMB 8.8BRMB 2.5BRMB 2.3BRMB 13.7B-
Q2 2026RMB 12.5BRMB 7.3BRMB 2.5BRMB 2.6BRMB 13.1B644M

Business mix

Reported revenue pools and autonomous mobility optionality

Baidu General Business

RMB 25.2B

-4%

Search, AI Cloud, AI applications and autonomous mobility.

iQIYI

RMB 6.3B

-5%

Online entertainment revenue included in consolidated results.

Online Marketing Services

RMB 13.1B

-19%

Legacy monetization engine facing traffic and advertiser transition.

AI-powered Business

RMB 12.5B

25%

AI Cloud infrastructure, AI applications and AI-native marketing.

Apollo Go

28 cities · 350M km

Apollo Go deployment indicators disclosed with Q2 2026 results; they are adoption metrics, not standalone revenue guidance.

Scenario valuation

Cash-rich equity with a difficult enterprise-value bridge

The DCF treats reported cash and investments less estimated debt as non-operating value. Liquidity quality, offshore accessibility and strategic investment marks can differ from cash at par.

Bear

46.7%

$129

12.0% discount · 2.0% terminal growth

Base

152.9%

$223

10.5% discount · 2.5% terminal growth

Bull

348.5%

$395

9.0% discount · 3.0% terminal growth

Hobite scenarios, not Baidu guidance. Reference: $88.08 on 2026-09-24.

Historical rows combine Yahoo Finance adjusted closes nearest year-end with Baidu SEC financials, filing-normalized ADS counts, and year-end RMB/USD context. ADS counts are rounded because the XBRL history does not provide a consistent diluted-ADS series. FY2026 uses the September 24, 2026 market snapshot and Hobite estimates.

YearADS priceEnterprise valueP/SEV/SalesP/EFCF yield
2018$158.60RMB 291B3.7x2.8x13.8x7.1%
2019$126.40RMB 205B2.9x1.9x149.7x7.2%
2020$216.24RMB 382B4.6x3.6x22.1x3.9%
2021$148.79RMB 205B2.7x1.6x32.4x2.8%
2022$114.38RMB 155B2.2x1.3x36.4x6.5%
2023$119.09RMB 142B2.2x1.1x14.4x8.7%
2024$84.31RMB 121B1.6x0.9x8.9x6.2%
2025$130.66RMB 254B2.5x2.0x58.5x-4.6%
2026$88.08RMB 15B1.6x0.1x20.5x5.9%

Ten-year model

Explicit revenue and free-cash-flow paths

Hobite FY2026-FY2035 scenarios are assumptions, not Baidu guidance. They vary search erosion, AI Cloud and application growth, and the conversion of infrastructure spending into free cash flow.

YearBear: Revenue / Growth / Free cash flowBase: Revenue / Growth / Free cash flowBull: Revenue / Growth / Free cash flow
2026RMB 125.0B / 0.0% / RMB 6.3BRMB 128.0B / 0.0% / RMB 12.0BRMB 132.0B / 0.0% / RMB 15.8B
2027RMB 125.0B / 0.0% / RMB 7.5BRMB 131.8B / 3.0% / RMB 14.5BRMB 139.9B / 6.0% / RMB 19.6B
2028RMB 126.3B / 1.0% / RMB 8.8BRMB 138.4B / 5.0% / RMB 18.0BRMB 152.5B / 9.0% / RMB 25.9B
2029RMB 128.8B / 2.0% / RMB 10.3BRMB 148.1B / 7.0% / RMB 22.2BRMB 169.3B / 11.0% / RMB 32.2B
2030RMB 132.6B / 3.0% / RMB 11.9BRMB 160.0B / 8.0% / RMB 25.6BRMB 189.6B / 12.0% / RMB 39.8B
2031RMB 136.6B / 3.0% / RMB 12.3BRMB 172.8B / 8.0% / RMB 29.4BRMB 210.5B / 11.0% / RMB 46.3B
2032RMB 140.7B / 3.0% / RMB 14.1BRMB 184.9B / 7.0% / RMB 33.3BRMB 231.5B / 10.0% / RMB 53.2B
2033RMB 144.9B / 3.0% / RMB 14.5BRMB 196.0B / 6.0% / RMB 35.3BRMB 252.3B / 9.0% / RMB 58.0B
2034RMB 149.3B / 3.0% / RMB 14.9BRMB 205.8B / 5.0% / RMB 37.0BRMB 272.5B / 8.0% / RMB 62.7B
2035RMB 153.8B / 3.0% / RMB 15.4BRMB 216.0B / 5.0% / RMB 38.9BRMB 291.6B / 7.0% / RMB 67.1B

SEC financial database

Eight years of reported financial history

FY2018-FY2025 are generated from SEC XBRL company facts and Baidu Forms 20-F. Data are RMB. One BIDU ADS represents eight Class A ordinary shares.

FY2018
RMB 102B
FY2019
RMB 107B
FY2020
RMB 107B
FY2021
RMB 124B
FY2022
RMB 124B
FY2023
RMB 135B
FY2024
RMB 133B
FY2025
RMB 129B

Annual history

YearRevenueGross profitOperating incomeNet incomeOperating cash flowFree cash flowCash + short-term investmentsDebtOperating margin
2018RMB 102.3B-RMB 15.5BRMB 27.6BRMB 36.0BRMB 27.2BRMB 139.3BRMB 49.6B15.2%
2019RMB 107.4B-RMB 6.3BRMB 2.1BRMB 28.5BRMB 22.0BRMB 146.4BRMB 43.3B5.9%
2020RMB 107.1B-RMB 14.3BRMB 22.5BRMB 24.2BRMB 19.1BRMB 162.2BRMB 48.4B13.4%
2021RMB 124.5B-RMB 10.5BRMB 10.2BRMB 20.1BRMB 9.2BRMB 180.1BRMB 53.6B8.4%
2022RMB 123.7B-RMB 15.9BRMB 7.6BRMB 26.2BRMB 17.9BRMB 174.0BRMB 53.6B12.9%
2023RMB 134.6B-RMB 21.9BRMB 20.3BRMB 36.6BRMB 25.4BRMB 193.9BRMB 43.7B16.2%
2024RMB 133.1B-RMB 21.3BRMB 23.8BRMB 21.2BRMB 13.1BRMB 127.4BRMB 36.2B16.0%
2025RMB 129.1B-RMB -5.8BRMB 5.6BRMB -3.0BRMB -15.1BRMB 115.3BRMB 42.8B-4.5%

Primary documents

Baidu SEC filing inventory

Annual reports

FormReport dateFiled
20-F2016-12-312017-03-31
20-F2017-12-312018-03-15
20-F2018-12-312019-03-15
20-F2019-12-312020-03-13
20-F2020-12-312021-03-09
20-F2021-12-312022-03-28
20-F2022-12-312023-03-22
20-F2023-12-312024-03-15
20-F2024-12-312025-03-28
20-F2025-12-312026-03-17

Recent Form 6-K

FormReport dateFiled
6-K2026-09-102026-09-10
6-K2026-09-112026-09-11
6-K2026-09-142026-09-14
6-K2026-09-152026-09-15
6-K2026-09-162026-09-16
6-K2026-09-172026-09-17
6-K2026-09-172026-09-17
6-K2026-09-182026-09-18
6-K2026-09-212026-09-21
6-K2026-09-222026-09-22
6-K2026-09-232026-09-23
6-K2026-09-242026-09-24

Latest 20-F: 2026-03-17. Latest 6-K: 2026-09-24.

Research controls

Sources, audit trail and publication QA

Primary-source-first audit. Estimates, reconstructed values and market-data inputs are labeled separately from reported results.

Publication QA

Primary filings linked

pass

Annual and recent Form 6-K inventories link directly to SEC documents.

Reported and modeled data separated

pass

Forecast, reconstructed operating values and rounded ADS counts are explicitly labeled.

English and Chinese parity

pass

Both pages render the same financial, operating and valuation data.

Automated regeneration

pass

npm run research:bidu:data refreshes SEC filings, annual facts and valuation history.

Residual data risk

review

China ADR, VIE, investment-mark and currency risks require investor judgment beyond reported cash balances.

12 analytical views across 3 groups.

Research and education only, not personalized investment advice. China ADR, VIE, currency, regulation and market-price risks remain material.