执行摘要
英伟达已成为加速计算的控制层，将处理器、系统、网络、软件与开发者生态整合成利润率极高的平台。
- FY2027 Q2 收入同比翻倍至 962 亿美元，数据中心收入达到 890 亿美元。
- GAAP 毛利率为 75.0%，经营利润率为 66.2%。
- 230.36 美元的参考股价已计入长期 AI 基础设施扩张。
Hobite Research
更新于 2026 年 9 月 4 日 · NVDA · 美元English
完整基本面研究中心
英伟达
处于加速计算中心的全栈平台，拥有卓越经济性，也承担着快速扩大的生态承诺。
FY2027 Q2 收入
$96.2B
106% YoY · 66.2% op. margin
数据中心收入
$89.0B
117% YoY
现金与证券
$99.4B
$66.0B net cash
参考股价
$230.36
13.8x FY2027E P/S
投资备忘录
AI 基础设施领先与其融资义务
公司历史
英伟达从 PC 图形芯片公司，经 CUDA、数据中心系统和高速网络，演变为全栈加速计算平台。
- CUDA 将 GPU 可编程性转化为开发者与软件护城河。
- Mellanox 将 InfiniBand 和以太网纳入计算平台。
- Hopper、Blackwell 与 Vera Rubin 推动公司从芯片走向机架级 AI 基础设施。
商业模式
公司通过芯片、板卡、整机、网络、软件和服务变现架构领先，同时依赖全球无晶圆厂供应链。
- 数据中心占当前季度收入九成以上。
- 超大规模云厂商和 AI 云采购集成计算与网络系统。
- 边缘计算覆盖游戏、工作站、汽车与本地 AI。
财务质量
增长、利润率和现金创造极强，但证券投资收益与营运资本扩张使经营利润和现金流比单看净利润更有解释力。
- FY2026 收入增长 65% 至 2,159 亿美元，经营利润达到 1,304 亿美元。
- Q2 经营现金流为 241 亿美元，尽管应收账款增加 223 亿美元。
- 上半年净利润包含 237 亿美元证券投资收益。
平台经济
护城河来自系统层：加速计算、NVLink、网络、CUDA 库和部署工具共同提高性能并增加客户集成成本。
- Q2 数据中心收入增长 117% 至 890 亿美元。
- 超大规模收入为 487 亿美元，AI 云、工业与企业为 403 亿美元。
- Blackwell 仍贡献绝大多数收入，Rubin 已于 FY2027 Q3 开始生产出货。
供应与产能
长周期采购保障增长，也把需求预测风险转移给英伟达，合同承诺规模已超过年度收入。
- 供应与产能承诺一季度内由 1,190 亿美元升至 2,790 亿美元。
- 库存达到 316 亿美元，高于 FY2026 年末的 214 亿美元。
- FY2026 包含 45 亿美元 H20 库存和采购义务费用。
资产负债表与资本配置
公司拥有大量流动性与现金流，但战略投资、发债和基础设施支持使资本配置日益复杂。
- Q2 现金及可交易债务和权益证券合计 994 亿美元。
- 发行 250 亿美元优先票据后，总债务升至 334 亿美元。
- FY2027 上半年回购 390 亿美元股票，剩余授权 990 亿美元。
增长驱动
需求正从模型训练扩展到推理、智能体、主权 AI、企业工作负载、网络与实体 AI。
- Q3 指引为 1,080 亿美元，且未假设中国数据中心计算收入。
- Rubin 是 Blackwell Ultra 之后的下一次架构迁移。
- 网络、企业采用和软件可降低对超大规模训练集群的单一依赖。
竞争
竞争来自定制加速器、AMD、网络厂商、中国本土平台，以及寻求更低总成本与供应商议价权的大客户。
- 超大规模客户可将负载转移至自研 ASIC。
- 开放软件层可能逐步降低 CUDA 切换摩擦。
- 每次架构迁移都要求计算、内存、网络、散热和系统同步执行。
管理层与治理
创始人主导的技术战略创造了卓越成果，但不断扩大的投资与担保需要更严格的披露和资本治理。
- 黄仁勋仍是产品愿景和生态关系的核心。
- 战略持股可能强化需求，也可能模糊客户融资与投资回报。
- 薪酬、接班安排及生态承诺需要持续监控。
风险
主要风险是 AI 资本开支回调、客户集中、出口管制、供需错配、竞争及或有基础设施敞口。
- 两家直接客户分别贡献 FY2026 收入的 22% 和 14%。
- 公司称在当前规则下实际上无法参与中国数据中心计算市场。
- Q2 披露 360 亿美元 AI 云承诺、200 亿美元第三方租赁及重大担保。
估值
优秀公司仍可能因增长期限和终值利润率被高估而成为不佳投资；当前价格要求长期规模与现金转化持续兑现。
- 悲观情景假设需求正常化，自由现金流利润率降至约 24%。
- 基准情景假设 AI 建设周期较长，成熟自由现金流利润率达到 30% 后段。
- 乐观情景要求公司跨越多代架构仍保持全栈主导地位。
投资结论
英伟达拥有 AI 基础设施中最强的已验证经济性，但投资者同时在押注技术领先和日益金融化生态的偿付能力与利用率。
- 应同时跟踪数据中心增长和毛利率，而非只看加速器需求。
- 把库存、应收账款、供应承诺、云协议和担保视为同一风险系统。
- 长期逻辑需要 Rubin 顺利执行，并在超大规模增长放缓后实现企业推理需求扩散。
最新季度
Blackwell 规模、Rubin 迁移与 Q3 指引
NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q and results release, for the quarter ended July 26, 2026.
毛利润
$72.1B
经营利润
$63.7B
净利润
$59.7B
自由现金流
$21.4B
Q3 FY2027 outlook
$108B ± 2%
Management's Q3 FY2027 outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. Gross margin: 74.0% ± 50 bps.
官方来源平台组合
超大规模、AI 云、企业与边缘
NVIDIA changed market-platform presentation in Q1 FY2027 and recast comparable periods. Q2 FY2027 also reclassified one company from AI Clouds, Industrial & Enterprise to Hyperscale.
供应经济
库存、合同承诺与客户集中
Commitments are contractual exposure, not debt or guaranteed loss. Q2 FY2027 also disclosed $3.5B of AI-cloud land, power and shell guarantees and a later $105B capped SB Energy guarantee that generally begins as construction phases enter service.
资本配置
现金创造、研发、债务与回购
Free cash flow is operating cash flow less purchases related to property, equipment and intangible assets. H1 FY2027 cash and investments include marketable debt and equity securities; $25B of senior notes were issued in June 2026.
情景估值
当前股价要求投资者相信什么
The DCF values cash flows, not headline accelerator demand. Contractual supply, cloud and guarantee exposures are reflected through lower bear-case growth and margins rather than treated as debt at face value.
悲观
-73.7%$61
12.0% discount · 3.0% terminal growth
基准
-16.7%$192
10.5% discount · 3.5% terminal growth
乐观
81.7%$419
9.5% discount · 4.0% terminal growth
所有预测均为 Hobite 情景假设，并非英伟达指引。 Reference: $230.36 on 2026-09-04.
历史市场估值
Historical rows combine Yahoo Finance split-adjusted closes nearest NVIDIA's year-end with SEC financials and split-normalized diluted shares. FY2027 uses the September 4, 2026 market snapshot and Hobite full-year estimates.
| 年份 | 股价 | 市值 | 企业价值 | 市销率 | EV/收入 | 市盈率 | FCF 收益率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $60.92 | $1519B | $1503B | 24.9x | 24.7x | 51.1x | 1.8% |
| 2025 | $142.41 | $3532B | $3498B | 27.1x | 26.8x | 48.5x | 1.7% |
| 2026 | $187.44 | $4595B | $4593B | 21.3x | 21.3x | 38.3x | 2.1% |
| 2027 | $230.36 | $5594B | $5605B | 13.8x | 13.8x | - | 2.4% |
十年模型
明确的收入与自由现金流路径
Hobite FY2027-FY2036 scenarios are assumptions, not NVIDIA guidance. They explicitly vary AI infrastructure demand duration, platform cadence, competition and free-cash-flow conversion.
| 年份 | 悲观: 收入 / growth / 自由现金流 | 基准: 收入 / growth / 自由现金流 | 乐观: 收入 / growth / 自由现金流 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $390.0B / 0.0% / $109.2B | $405.0B / 0.0% / $133.7B | $420.0B / 0.0% / $147.0B |
| 2028 | $448.5B / 15.0% / $121.1B | $526.5B / 30.0% / $179.0B | $596.4B / 42.0% / $226.6B |
| 2029 | $493.4B / 10.0% / $128.3B | $642.3B / 22.0% / $224.8B | $787.2B / 32.0% / $314.9B |
| 2030 | $532.8B / 8.0% / $133.2B | $757.9B / 18.0% / $272.9B | $984.1B / 25.0% / $413.3B |
| 2031 | $570.1B / 7.0% / $136.8B | $871.6B / 15.0% / $322.5B | $1180.9B / 20.0% / $507.8B |
| 2032 | $604.3B / 6.0% / $145.0B | $976.2B / 12.0% / $371.0B | $1381.6B / 17.0% / $607.9B |
| 2033 | $634.5B / 5.0% / $152.3B | $1073.9B / 10.0% / $408.1B | $1575.0B / 14.0% / $693.0B |
| 2034 | $666.3B / 5.0% / $159.9B | $1170.5B / 9.0% / $444.8B | $1764.1B / 12.0% / $776.2B |
| 2035 | $692.9B / 4.0% / $166.3B | $1264.2B / 8.0% / $480.4B | $1940.5B / 10.0% / $853.8B |
| 2036 | $720.6B / 4.0% / $173.0B | $1352.6B / 7.0% / $514.0B | $2115.1B / 9.0% / $930.6B |
SEC 财务数据库
十年损益表与现金流历史
FY2017-FY2026 are generated from SEC XBRL company facts and NVIDIA Forms 10-K. Data are USD. Valuation history separately normalizes the July 2021 four-for-one and June 2024 ten-for-one stock splits.
收入
FY2017
$7B
FY2018
$10B
FY2019
$12B
FY2020
$11B
FY2021
$17B
FY2022
$27B
FY2023
$27B
FY2024
$61B
FY2025
$130B
FY2026
$216B
年度历史
| 年份 | 收入 | 毛利润 | 经营利润 | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 资本开支 | 自由现金流 | 现金与证券 | 债务 | Gross margin | FCF margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $6.9B | $4.1B | $1.9B | $1.7B | $1.7B | - | - | $6.8B | $2.0B | 58.8% | - |
| 2018 | $9.7B | $5.8B | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.5B | - | - | $7.1B | $2.0B | 59.9% | - |
| 2019 | $11.7B | $7.2B | $3.8B | $4.1B | $3.7B | - | - | $7.4B | $2.0B | 61.2% | - |
| 2020 | $10.9B | $6.8B | $2.8B | $2.8B | $4.8B | - | - | $10.9B | $2.0B | 62.0% | - |
| 2021 | $16.7B | $10.4B | $4.5B | $4.3B | $5.8B | - | - | $11.6B | $7.0B | 62.3% | - |
| 2022 | $26.9B | $17.5B | $10.0B | $9.8B | $9.1B | - | - | $21.2B | $10.9B | 64.9% | - |
| 2023 | $27.0B | $15.4B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $5.6B | - | - | $13.3B | $11.0B | 56.9% | - |
| 2024 | $60.9B | $44.3B | $33.0B | $29.8B | $28.1B | $1.1B | $27.0B | $26.0B | $9.7B | 72.7% | 44.4% |
| 2025 | $130.5B | $97.9B | $81.5B | $72.9B | $64.1B | $3.2B | $60.9B | $43.2B | $8.5B | 75.0% | 46.6% |
| 2026 | $215.9B | $153.5B | $130.4B | $120.1B | $102.7B | $6.0B | $96.7B | $10.6B | $8.5B | 71.1% | 44.8% |
最近季度
Recent quarters are generated from Nvidia SEC XBRL facts. Q4 flow values are derived from the Form 10-K less Q1-Q3.
| 期间 | 收入 | 毛利润 | 经营利润 | 净利润 | 经营现金流 | 资本开支 | 自由现金流 | Gross margin | FCF margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 Q1 | $26.0B | $20.4B | $16.9B | $14.9B | $15.3B | $0.4B | $15.0B | 78.4% | 57.5% |
| FY2025 Q2 | $30.0B | $22.6B | $18.6B | $16.6B | $14.5B | $1.0B | $13.5B | 75.1% | 45.0% |
| FY2025 Q3 | $35.1B | $26.2B | $21.9B | $19.3B | $17.6B | $0.8B | $16.8B | 74.6% | 47.9% |
| FY2025 Q4 | $39.3B | $28.7B | $24.0B | $22.1B | $16.6B | $1.1B | $15.6B | 73.0% | 39.5% |
| FY2026 Q1 | $44.1B | $26.7B | $21.6B | $18.8B | $27.4B | $1.2B | $26.2B | 60.5% | 59.4% |
| FY2026 Q2 | $46.7B | $33.9B | $28.4B | $26.4B | $15.4B | $1.9B | $13.5B | 72.4% | 28.8% |
| FY2026 Q3 | $57.0B | $41.8B | $36.0B | $31.9B | $23.8B | $1.6B | $22.1B | 73.4% | 38.8% |
| FY2026 Q4 | $68.1B | $51.1B | $44.3B | $43.0B | $36.2B | $1.3B | $34.9B | 75.0% | 51.2% |
| FY2027 Q1 | $81.6B | $61.2B | $53.5B | $58.3B | $50.3B | $1.8B | $48.6B | 74.9% | 59.5% |
| FY2027 Q2 | $96.2B | $72.1B | $63.7B | $59.7B | $24.1B | $2.7B | $21.4B | 75.0% | 22.2% |
原始文件
英伟达 SEC 文件清单
年度报告
Latest 10-K: 2026-02-25. Latest 10-Q: 2026-08-26.
研究控制
来源、审计轨迹与发布 QA
SEC filings are authoritative for GAAP history. NVIDIA IR supports guidance and platform commentary; Yahoo Finance is used only for price context.
官方来源
SEC filing submissions
Authoritative filing inventory
SEC XBRL company facts
Annual and quarterly GAAP financials
NVIDIA FY2026 Form 10-K
Audited segments, end markets, concentration and supply economics
NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q
Latest financials, market platforms, commitments and risks
NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 results
Quarter summary and Q3 guidance
来源审计
Filing inventory
completeFY2017-FY2026 10-K and recent 10-Q. Generated from NVIDIA's current CIK.
Annual financials
completeFY2017-FY2026. Exact report-date and accession matching limits comparative-fact contamination.
Quarterly financials
completeFY2025 Q1-FY2027 Q2. Q4 flow values are derived and identified.
Platform metrics
completeQ2 FY2026-Q2 FY2027 recast presentation. Uses the latest market-platform definitions.
Supply and capital
completeFY2024-Q2 FY2027. Separates balance-sheet items, commitments and guarantees.
Forecast and DCF
completeFY2027-FY2036. All long-range figures are Hobite scenarios, not management guidance.
Historical valuation
completeFY2024-FY2027. Prices and shares normalize NVIDIA's 2021 and 2024 splits.
发布检查
Primary-source coverage
passSEC filings support GAAP history, platform metrics, commitments and concentration; NVIDIA IR supports guidance.
Fiscal-period mapping
passQuarter generation uses SEC fiscal-year and fiscal-period tags for NVIDIA's January year-end.
Stock-split normalization
passHistorical prices and diluted shares normalize the 2021 four-for-one and 2024 ten-for-one splits.
Forecast labeling
passFY2027-FY2036 scenarios are clearly identified as Hobite assumptions.
TypeScript and production build
passHobite and SVIM production builds completed successfully on September 4, 2026.
Responsive browser review
passEnglish and Chinese routes were reviewed in desktop and mobile layouts.
24 analytical views across 6 groups.
本页仅用于研究与教育，不构成个性化投资建议。市场价格、指引与预测可能迅速过时。