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Hobite Capital

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Netflix (NFLX) Complete Fundamental Research Hub

This page is the working hub for the Netflix research project: SEC-backed financial history, subscriber analysis, content economics, competitive positioning, forecast model, DCF valuation, and final investment conclusion.

Research librarySEC filing indexNetflix IR

Coverage

108 filings

Core SEC inventory now includes registration statements, annual reports, and quarterly reports.

Annual reports

26

Latest annual filing: FY 2025, filed 2026-01-23.

Quarterlies

70 rows

Latest financial row: 2026 Q2; latest filing: 2026-06-30.

2025 Revenue

$45.2B

SEC XBRL draft database now covers FY2009-FY2025.

$67 Reference Price: Latest Results and Valuation

Updated 2026-10-04 · 2026 Q2 · Results released 2026-07-16. Q3 actual results were not yet published as of this update.

User-specified reference price (not a live quote)
$67.00
Q2 revenue
$12.56B
Q2 operating margin
33.4%
Q2 free cash flow
$1.53B
Diluted equity-value proxy
$285.51B
2026 forward EV / sales
5.68x
Guidance FCF yield
4.38%
Normalized FCF yield
3.68%

Q2 revenue grew 13.4% and operating income grew approximately 11%; operating margin declined from 34.1% to 33.4% year over year. Net income was $3.40B and diluted EPS was $0.80. Cash tax timing depressed quarterly FCF; neither Q2 FCF nor Q1 earnings should be annualized mechanically. Q1 earnings and H1 cash flow include the Warner Bros. termination payment.

FY2026 company guidance: revenue $51.0B–$51.4B, operating margin 31.5%, advertising revenue approximately $3B and FCF approximately $12.5B. Normalized FCF of $10.5B equals guidance less an analyst-assumed $2.0B after-tax one-time benefit; this is not company-adjusted guidance. Q3 guidance is $12.86B revenue, 33.2% operating margin and $0.82 EPS, not actual results.

Q2 regional revenue: UCAN $5.432B, EMEA $4.034B, LATAM $1.584B and APAC $1.510B. Ending content assets were $33.84B and content obligations $25.11B; quarterly buybacks were approximately $4.7B. Regular quarterly membership reporting has stopped; no current subscriber count or ARPU is inferred.

ScenarioDCF per shareUpside / downside vs $67
Bear$40.92-38.9%
Base$71.48+6.7%
Bull$112.19+67.4%

Investment conclusion: $67 is near base-case fair value, not an obvious bargain. Growth, advertising execution and content efficiency remain the key drivers; the modest normalized cash yield leaves returns dependent on continued growth. DCF values are assumption-driven estimates, not guaranteed returns or personalized investment advice.

Equity DCF discounts FCF after interest at a cost of equity; net debt is not subtracted again. EV = equity value + June 30 carrying debt less cash ($5.210B), excluding short-term investments. Q2 weighted-average diluted shares (4.2613B) are a fixed split-adjusted proxy, not spot shares outstanding. FY2026 cash already realized or estimated through September is excluded: normalized H1 FCF plus half of assumed H2 FCF. Q3 actuals are not yet reported. Year-end cash flows are discounted from October 4, 2026. No future buyback uplift is assumed.

Q2 shareholder letter (results and guidance)Q2 SEC Form 10-Q

Finished Investment Report

Hobite conclusion

Quality compounder, valuation-sensitive

Netflix has evolved from a domestic DVD subscription company into a global entertainment platform with scale economics, strong operating leverage, and growing free cash flow. The base case is attractive when purchased at a disciplined valuation; the bear case is multiple compression if content ROI, advertising, or pricing power disappoints.

Executive Summary

Updated October 4, 2026: Netflix remains a cash-generative global platform. At the user-specified $67 reference price, the investment case is near base-case fair value rather than an obvious bargain; the latest published quarter is Q2 2026.

  • The core thesis is that Netflix's scale, recommendation system, global content distribution, and pricing power create a durable attention-and-entertainment compounder.
  • Q2 revenue was $12.56B, operating margin 33.4%, EPS $0.80 and FCF $1.53B. FY2026 guidance is $51.0B-$51.4B revenue, 31.5% operating margin and approximately $12.5B reported FCF. The model normalizes base FCF to $10.5B using an explicitly assumed $2.0B after-tax termination benefit.
  • The risk case is not insolvency or product irrelevance; it is valuation compression if growth slows before ads, games, and live programming become large enough to matter.

Company History

Netflix's history is a sequence of self-disruption decisions: DVD-by-mail, streaming, originals, international expansion, advertising, live events, and now AI-enabled personalization.

  • The 2002 IPO-era company was a domestic DVD subscription business with a small but already visible data advantage in recommendations and fulfillment.
  • Streaming shifted Netflix from logistics to software distribution, while originals shifted the company from aggregator to content owner and global programmer.
  • The advertising tier and live-event strategy are the next monetization layers on top of the same global engagement base.

Business Model

Netflix sells recurring access to a global entertainment library, then reinvests subscriber cash flows into content, product, localization, and monetization systems.

  • Subscription revenue remains the foundation because it creates recurring cash receipts and predictable engagement data.
  • Advertising adds a second yield curve for price-sensitive users without forcing the whole member base into a single price ladder.
  • The model improves when content amortization, technology spend, and marketing grow slower than revenue.

Financial Quality

The financial story has shifted from cash-burning content expansion to high-margin free-cash-flow generation.

  • Revenue grew from $153M in FY2002 to $45.2B in FY2025 in the current dataset.
  • FY2025 operating margin reached 29.5%, a very different profile from the low-margin DVD and early streaming reinvestment years.
  • Free cash flow reached $9.5B in FY2025, giving Netflix strategic flexibility for content, ads, sports, buybacks, and selective acquisitions.

Subscribers and ARPU

Subscriber analysis should now be treated as a monetization-quality problem rather than only a member-count problem.

  • Netflix's decision to reduce quarterly subscriber disclosure makes revenue, ARPU, engagement, churn, and advertising progress more important monitoring variables.
  • Regional ARPU remains central because mature markets provide pricing power while emerging markets provide long-duration household penetration.
  • The next data pass should extract every disclosed membership and ARPU table from shareholder letters and annual reports.

Content Economics

Netflix's largest capital allocation decision is content: the company must balance freshness, global taste coverage, local originals, and amortization discipline.

  • Content assets and amortization are the bridge between reported margins and cash economics.
  • The best case is that larger scale allows Netflix to produce more global viewing hours per dollar of content spend.
  • The bear case is content inflation from competitors, talent costs, and live sports rights.

Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation

Netflix now has a balance sheet that supports offense rather than survival.

  • June 30, 2026 cash was $9.099B; short-term plus long-term carrying debt was $14.309B, for $5.210B net debt excluding short-term investments. Q2 buybacks were approximately $4.7B. Content obligations of $25.107B are an additional operating commitment, not included in financial net debt.
  • The capital allocation hierarchy should be content ROI first, platform monetization second, then debt management and buybacks.
  • Buybacks are attractive only when management can repurchase below conservative intrinsic value.

AI Strategy

AI is not a separate product line for Netflix; it is an operating system for personalization, localization, production efficiency, advertising, and discovery.

  • Recommendation quality is a long-standing Netflix advantage because it converts a large catalog into personalized user surfaces.
  • AI localization and dubbing can increase the global addressable audience for local-language content.
  • Advertising AI matters because targeting, measurement, and creative optimization determine ad-tier monetization quality.

Advertising

Advertising is the most important new profit pool because it can raise revenue per engagement hour without relying only on subscription price increases.

  • The ad tier can expand the funnel for price-sensitive users and improve monetization in mature markets.
  • The main execution risk is building ad tech, measurement, and demand density without degrading the viewing experience.
  • Long term, advertising can make Netflix more comparable to scaled attention platforms while preserving subscription revenue quality.

Live Sports and Events

Live programming can increase appointment viewing, ad inventory, and cultural relevance, but rights discipline is critical.

  • The strategic logic is engagement frequency and advertiser demand, not simply copying linear television.
  • Sports rights become dangerous if bidding turns fixed-cost inflation into a margin headwind.
  • The best fit is selective global or semi-global events where Netflix can amortize rights across a very large member base.

Gaming

Gaming remains an option-value business rather than a core valuation pillar.

  • The strategic rationale is deeper engagement and franchise extension.
  • The risk is that gaming requires different production, distribution, and hit-development capabilities than film and series.
  • Until gaming contributes visible revenue or retention, it should be valued conservatively.

Competition

Netflix competes with streaming services, creator platforms, social video, gaming, sports, and every other claim on leisure time.

  • Disney, Amazon, Apple, Max, and YouTube each pressure different parts of Netflix's value proposition.
  • Netflix's advantage is focus: streaming entertainment is the core business, not an ancillary bundle component.
  • The competitive question is whether Netflix can keep content productivity and product engagement high enough to justify recurring price increases.

Management

Netflix management has repeatedly shown willingness to disrupt its own model before the market forces the issue.

  • Reed Hastings shaped the culture and long-term transition mindset.
  • Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters now represent the combined content-and-product operating model.
  • The key management test is capital discipline as Netflix expands into ads, live events, games, and AI-enabled production tools.

Risks

The biggest risks are content ROI degradation, price elasticity, competitive attention shifts, advertising execution, sports rights inflation, currency, and regulation.

  • A large fixed content base magnifies mistakes in programming and rights acquisition.
  • Advertising could underdeliver if targeting, measurement, or buyer demand develops slower than expected.
  • Regulatory and cultural risk rises as Netflix becomes a larger global media institution.

Investment Conclusion

Netflix is a high-quality global consumer platform, but the investment case is valuation-sensitive after the business has already proven its margin potential.

  • Base-case rating: Quality compounder / valuation-sensitive.
  • Best investor fit: long-duration investors comfortable underwriting media volatility and content-cycle uncertainty.
  • Key monitoring metrics: revenue growth, operating margin, FCF margin, ad revenue progress, content amortization, regional monetization, and buyback discipline.

Chart Dashboard

Annual Financials

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Net Income

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Margins and Returns

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Net Margin

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Free Cash Flow Margin

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Return on Equity

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Cash Flow and Capital Allocation

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Capital Expenditures

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Free Cash Flow

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Cash and Equivalents

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Long-Term Debt

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Diluted Shares

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Subscribers and Regions

Global Streaming Revenue

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Global Paid Memberships

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UCAN Streaming Revenue

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EMEA Streaming Revenue

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LATAM Streaming Revenue

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APAC Streaming Revenue

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Content and Valuation

Content Assets, Net

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Content Amortization

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Content Obligations

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Enterprise Value to Sales

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Price to Earnings

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Free Cash Flow Yield

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Forecast and DCF

Updated October 4, 2026 using Q2 results. FY2026 scenario revenues are $51.0B/$51.2B/$51.4B; recurring FCF is $9.0B/$10.5B/$11.5B. Company FCF guidance is $12.5B including a termination payment. The base case subtracts an assumed $2.0B after-tax one-time benefit, not a company-disclosed reconciliation. Later growth and margins are analyst assumptions.

bear

$79.1B 2035 revenue

$40.92

Equity DCF uses a 9.5% cost of equity and 2.5% terminal growth. -38.9% upside / downside vs $67.

YearRevenueGrowthFCFFCF Margin
2026$51.0B12.9%$9.0B17.6%
2027$54.6B7.0%$9.8B18.0%
2028$57.8B6.0%$10.7B18.5%
2029$61.3B6.0%$11.6B19.0%
2030$64.4B5.0%$12.2B19.0%
2031$67.6B5.0%$13.2B19.5%
2032$70.3B4.0%$13.7B19.5%
2033$73.1B4.0%$14.6B20.0%
2034$76.0B4.0%$15.2B20.0%
2035$79.1B4.0%$15.8B20.0%

base

$103.2B 2035 revenue

$71.48

Equity DCF uses a 9.0% cost of equity and 3.0% terminal growth. 6.7% upside / downside vs $67.

YearRevenueGrowthFCFFCF Margin
2026$51.2B13.3%$10.5B20.5%
2027$57.3B12.0%$12.6B22.0%
2028$63.1B10.0%$14.2B22.5%
2029$68.8B9.0%$15.8B23.0%
2030$74.3B8.0%$17.5B23.5%
2031$80.2B8.0%$18.8B23.5%
2032$85.8B7.0%$20.6B24.0%
2033$91.8B7.0%$22.0B24.0%
2034$97.3B6.0%$23.8B24.5%
2035$103.2B6.0%$25.3B24.5%

bull

$126.6B 2035 revenue

$112.19

Equity DCF uses a 8.5% cost of equity and 3.5% terminal growth. 67.4% upside / downside vs $67.

YearRevenueGrowthFCFFCF Margin
2026$51.4B13.8%$11.5B22.4%
2027$59.1B15.0%$13.9B23.5%
2028$66.8B13.0%$16.4B24.5%
2029$74.8B12.0%$18.7B25.0%
2030$83.0B11.0%$21.2B25.5%
2031$91.3B10.0%$23.7B26.0%
2032$99.6B9.0%$26.4B26.5%
2033$108.5B9.0%$29.3B27.0%
2034$117.2B8.0%$31.6B27.0%
2035$126.6B8.0%$34.8B27.5%

Base EV

$309.8B

Base equity value

$304.6B

Net debt

$5.2B

Share basis

4261.3M

Equity DCF discounts FCF after interest at a cost of equity; net debt is not subtracted again. EV = equity value + June 30 carrying debt less cash ($5.210B), excluding short-term investments. Q2 weighted-average diluted shares (4.2613B) are a fixed split-adjusted proxy, not spot shares outstanding. FY2026 cash already realized or estimated through September is excluded: normalized H1 FCF plus half of assumed H2 FCF. Q3 actuals are not yet reported. Year-end cash flows are discounted from October 4, 2026. No future buyback uplift is assumed.

Historical Valuation

Historical valuation rows combine Yahoo Finance split-adjusted year-end NFLX close prices with Netflix SEC Form 10-K financial rows. FY2020-FY2022 diluted share counts are normalized to the same split-adjusted basis as the historical adjusted prices.

Coverage

FY2020-FY2025

2025 year-end market cap

$407.3B

2025 year-end EV/Sales

9.1x

2025 year-end FCF yield

2.3%

Enterprise Value to Sales

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Free Cash Flow Yield

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FYPrice DateAdj. CloseMarket CapEnterprise ValueP/SEV/SalesP/EFCF YieldSplit-Adj. Shares
20202020-12-31$54.07$245.6B$253.2B9.8x10.1x88.9x0.8%4542.1M
20212021-12-31$60.24$274.3B$283.0B9.2x9.5x53.6x0.0%4553.7M
20222022-12-30$29.49$133.1B$142.3B4.2x4.5x29.6x1.2%4512.9M
20232023-12-29$48.69$218.9B$225.9B6.5x6.7x40.5x3.2%4495.0M
20242024-12-31$89.13$391.5B$397.5B10.0x10.2x44.9x1.8%4392.6M
20252025-12-31$93.76$407.3B$411.7B9.0x9.1x37.1x2.3%4343.9M

Subscriber and Regional Economics

Regional streaming revenue, paid memberships, average paying memberships, and ARM are manually extracted from Netflix 10-K regional tables. FY2025 no longer discloses regional paid memberships or ARM in the same table, so those fields are null.

Latest disclosed members

301.6M

FY2024

2025 streaming revenue

$45.2B

Regions tracked

4

Disclosure change

FY2025

YearRegionStreaming RevenueEnding Paid MembersAverage MembersARMSource
2025APAC$5.4Bnot disclosednot disclosedn/a2025 10-K
2025EMEA$14.5Bnot disclosednot disclosedn/a2025 10-K
2025LATAM$5.4Bnot disclosednot disclosedn/a2025 10-K
2025UCAN$20.0Bnot disclosednot disclosedn/a2025 10-K
2024APAC$4.4B57.5M50.5M$7.292025 10-K
2024EMEA$12.4B101.1M94.2M$10.962025 10-K
2024LATAM$4.8B53.3M49.0M$8.242025 10-K
2024UCAN$17.4B89.6M84.1M$17.202025 10-K
2023APAC$3.8B45.3M41.0M$7.642025 10-K
2023EMEA$10.6B88.8M80.9M$10.872025 10-K
2023LATAM$4.4B46.0M42.8M$8.662025 10-K
2023UCAN$14.9B80.1M76.1M$16.282025 10-K
2022APAC$3.6B38.0M35.0M$8.502024 10-K
2022EMEA$9.7B76.7M73.9M$10.992024 10-K
2022LATAM$4.1B41.7M40.0M$8.482024 10-K
2022UCAN$14.1B74.3M74.0M$15.862024 10-K
2021APAC$3.3B32.6M28.5M$9.562023 10-K
2021EMEA$9.7B74.0M69.5M$11.632023 10-K
2021LATAM$3.6B40.0M38.6M$7.732023 10-K
2021UCAN$13.0B75.2M74.2M$14.562023 10-K
2020APAC$2.4B25.5M21.7M$9.122022 10-K
2020EMEA$7.8B66.7M60.4M$10.722022 10-K
2020LATAM$3.2B37.5M35.3M$7.452022 10-K
2020UCAN$11.5B73.9M71.7M$13.322022 10-K
2019APAC$1.5B16.2M13.2M$9.242021 10-K
2019EMEA$5.5B51.8M44.7M$10.332021 10-K
2019LATAM$2.8B31.4M28.4M$8.212021 10-K
2019UCAN$10.1B67.7M66.6M$12.572021 10-K

Content Economics Database

FY2020-FY2025 content economics are extracted from Netflix audited Form 10-K balance sheet component notes, MD&A cost of revenue commentary, and contractual obligations disclosures on SEC EDGAR. Amounts are reported in dollars; fields are null where the filing table did not provide the requested split directly.

Coverage

FY2020-FY2025

2025 content assets

$32.8B

2025 amortization

$16.4B

2025 obligations

$24.0B

Netflix's FY2025 contractual obligations disclosure also identifies $18.4B of content obligations not yet reflected on the balance sheet, plus an estimated $1.0B to $4.0B of unknown future title obligations over the next three years.

Content Assets, Net

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Content Amortization

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FYContent AssetsLicensed NetProduced NetAmortizationYoY Amort. ChangeContent LiabilitiesObligationsUnrecognizedTax Incentive BenefitSource
2025$32.8B$12.1B$20.6B$16.4B$1.1B$5.7B$24.0B$18.4B$1.0B10-K
2024$32.5B$12.4B$20.0B$15.3B$1.1B$6.2B$23.2B$17.0B$0.9B10-K
2023$31.7B$12.7B$18.9B$14.2B$0.2B$7.0B$21.7B$14.6B$0.8B10-K
2022$32.7B$12.7B$20.0B$14.0B$1.8B$7.6B$21.8B$14.2B$0.7B10-K
2021$30.9B$13.8B$17.1B$12.2B$1.4B$7.4B$23.2B$15.8Bn/a10-K
2020$25.4B$13.7B$11.6B$10.8B$1.6B$7.0B$19.2B$12.2Bn/a10-K

Build Roadmap

Step 1

Source inventory and filing downloader

Step 2

Annual financial database

Step 3

Quarterly financial database

Step 4

Subscriber and ARPU database

Step 5

Content economics database

Step 6

Chart component system

Step 7

Long-form research writing

Step 8

Forecast and DCF model

Step 9

Publication QA and citation audit

Annual Financial Database

FY2002-FY2008 are manually extracted from audited 10-K statement tables because complete early-year duration facts are not available in the SEC company facts endpoint. FY2009-FY2025 are generated from SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0001065280. FY2025 per-share and share counts are split-adjusted as reported by SEC XBRL.

XBRL coverage

FY2009-FY2025

Manual rows

7

Latest op. margin

29.5%

Latest FCF

$9.5B

FYRevenueGross ProfitOp. IncomeNet IncomeDiluted EPSOCFFCFOp. MarginDebtDiluted SharesSource
2025$45.2B$21.9B$13.3B$11.0B$2.53$10.1B$9.5B29.5%$13.5B4343.9M10-K
2024$39.0B$18.0B$10.4B$8.7B$1.98$7.4B$6.9B26.7%$13.8B4392.6M10-K
2023$33.7B$14.0B$7.0B$5.4B$1.20$7.3B$6.9B20.6%$14.1B4495.0M10-K
2022$31.6B$12.4B$5.6B$4.5B$9.95$2.0B$1.6B17.8%$14.4B451.3M10-K
2021$29.7B$12.4B$6.2B$5.1B$11.24$0.4B$-0.1B20.9%$14.7B455.4M10-K
2020$25.0B$9.7B$4.6B$2.8B$6.08$2.4B$1.9B18.3%$15.8B454.2M10-K
2019$20.2B$7.7B$2.6B$1.9B$4.13$-2.9B$-3.1B12.9%$14.8B451.8M10-K
2018$15.8B$5.8B$1.6B$1.2B$2.68$-2.7B$-2.9B10.2%$10.4B451.2M10-K
2017$11.7B$3.7B$0.8B$0.6B$1.25$-1.8B$-2.0B7.2%$6.5B446.8M10-K
2016$8.8B$2.6B$0.4B$0.2B$0.43$-1.5B$-1.6B4.3%$3.4B438.7M10-K
2015$6.8B$2.2B$0.3B$0.1B$0.28$-0.7B$-0.8B4.5%$2.4B436.5M10-K
2014$5.5B$1.8B$0.4B$0.3B$0.62$0.0B$-0.1B7.3%$0.9B431.9M10-K
2013$4.4B$1.3B$0.2B$0.1B$0.26$0.1B$0.0B5.2%$0.5B425.3M10-K
2012$3.6B$1.0B$0.0B$0.0B$0.29$0.0B$-0.0B1.4%$0.2B58.9M10-K
2011$3.2B$1.2B$0.4B$0.2B$4.16$0.3B$0.3B11.7%n/a54.4M10-K
2010$2.2B$0.8B$0.3B$0.2B$2.96$0.3B$0.2B13.1%n/a54.3M10-K
2009$1.7B$0.6B$0.2B$0.1B$1.98$0.3B$0.3B11.5%$0.2B58.4M10-K
2008$1.4B$0.5B$0.1B$0.1B$1.32$0.3B$0.2B8.9%$0.0B62.8M10-K
2007$1.2B$0.4B$0.1B$0.1B$0.97$0.3B$0.2B7.6%n/a68.9M10-K
2006$1.0B$0.4B$0.1B$0.0B$0.71$0.2B$0.2B6.5%n/a69.1M10-K
2005$0.7B$0.2B$0.0B$0.0B$0.64$0.2B$0.1B0.4%n/a65.5M10-K
2004$0.5B$0.2B$0.0B$0.0B$0.33$0.1B$0.1B3.9%n/a64.7M10-K
2003$0.3B$0.1B$0.0B$0.0B$0.10$0.1B$0.1B1.6%n/a62.9M10-K
2002$0.2B$0.1B$-0.0B$-0.0B$-0.74$0.0B$0.0B-7.0%n/a28.2M10-K

Quarterly Financial Database

Generated from SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0001065280. Q1-Q3 use quarterly frames, or cumulative YTD differences when no frame exists. Q4 flows are annual facts less Q1-Q3; Q4 diluted EPS is not derived. Later comparative frames may reflect stock splits.

Coverage

2009 Q1 - 2026 Q2

Rows

70

Latest revenue

$12.6B

Latest FCF

$1.5B

PeriodRevenueOp. IncomeOp. MarginNet IncomeDiluted EPSOCFFCFSource
2026 Q2$12.6B$4.2B33.4%$3.4B$0.80$1.7B$1.5B10-Q
2026 Q1$12.2B$4.0B32.3%$5.3B$1.23$5.3B$5.1B10-Q
2025 Q4$12.1B$3.0B24.5%$2.4Bn/a$2.1B$1.9B10-K
2025 Q3$11.5B$3.2B28.2%$2.5B$5.87$2.8B$2.7B10-Q
2025 Q2$11.1B$3.8B34.1%$3.1B$0.72$2.4B$2.3B10-Q
2025 Q1$10.5B$3.3B31.8%$2.9B$0.66$2.8B$2.7B10-Q
2024 Q4$10.2B$2.3B22.2%$1.9Bn/a$1.5B$1.4B10-K
2024 Q3$9.8B$2.9B29.6%$2.4B$5.40$2.3B$2.2B10-Q
2024 Q2$9.6B$2.6B27.2%$2.1B$4.88$1.3B$1.2B10-Q
2024 Q1$9.4B$2.6B28.1%$2.3B$5.28$2.2B$2.1B10-Q
2023 Q4$8.8B$1.5B16.9%$0.9Bn/a$1.7B$1.6B10-K
2023 Q3$8.5B$1.9B22.4%$1.7B$3.73$2.0B$1.9B10-Q
2023 Q2$8.2B$1.8B22.3%$1.5B$3.29$1.4B$1.3B10-Q
2023 Q1$8.2B$1.7B21.0%$1.3B$2.88$2.2B$2.1B10-Q
2022 Q4$7.9B$0.5B7.0%$0.1Bn/a$0.4B$0.3B10-K
2022 Q3$7.9B$1.5B19.3%$1.4B$3.10$0.6B$0.5B10-Q

SEC Filing Inventory

The filing inventory is generated from Netflix's official SEC submissions index for CIK 0001065280. Annual report amendments are preserved because they may affect references, exhibit coverage, or corrected disclosures during the source audit.

IPO and registration statement filings

FormReport DateFiling DateAccessionDocument
S-1IPO filing2000-04-180001012870-00-002191SEC filing
S-1IPO filing2002-03-060001012870-02-001044SEC filing
S-1/AIPO filing2002-03-200001012870-02-001324SEC filing
S-1/AIPO filing2002-04-160001012870-02-001807SEC filing
S-1/AIPO filing2002-05-070001012870-02-002125SEC filing
S-1/AIPO filing2002-05-160001012870-02-002335SEC filing
S-1/AIPO filing2002-05-200001012870-02-002403SEC filing

Annual filings from latest to IPO-era coverage

FormReport DateFiling DateAccessionDocument
10-K2025-12-312026-01-230001065280-26-000034SEC filing
10-K2024-12-312025-01-270001065280-25-000044SEC filing
10-K2023-12-312024-01-260001065280-24-000030SEC filing
10-K2022-12-312023-01-260001065280-23-000035SEC filing
10-K2021-12-312022-01-270001065280-22-000036SEC filing
10-K2020-12-312021-01-280001065280-21-000040SEC filing
10-K2019-12-312020-01-290001065280-20-000040SEC filing
10-K/A2018-12-312019-02-080001065280-19-000079SEC filing
10-K2018-12-312019-01-290001065280-19-000043SEC filing
10-K/A2017-12-312018-02-050001628280-18-000941SEC filing
10-K2017-12-312018-01-290001065280-18-000069SEC filing
10-K2016-12-312017-01-270001628280-17-000496SEC filing
10-K2015-12-312016-01-280001065280-16-000047SEC filing
10-K2014-12-312015-01-290001065280-15-000006SEC filing
10-K2013-12-312014-02-030001065280-14-000006SEC filing
10-K2012-12-312013-02-010001065280-13-000008SEC filing
10-K2011-12-312012-02-100001193125-12-053009SEC filing
10-K2010-12-312011-02-180001193125-11-040217SEC filing
10-K2009-12-312010-02-220001193125-10-036181SEC filing
10-K2008-12-312009-02-250001193125-09-037430SEC filing
10-K2007-12-312008-02-280001193125-08-040378SEC filing
10-K2006-12-312007-02-280001193125-07-042689SEC filing
10-K2005-12-312006-03-160001193125-06-056663SEC filing
10-K2004-12-312005-03-150001193125-05-051159SEC filing
10-K2003-12-312004-02-270001193125-04-031416SEC filing
10-K2002-12-312003-03-310000950168-03-001155SEC filing

Most recent 12 quarterly filings

FormReport DateFiling DateAccessionDocument
10-Q2026-06-302026-07-170001065280-26-000212SEC filing
10-Q2026-03-312026-04-170001065280-26-000138SEC filing
10-Q2025-09-302025-10-220001065280-25-000406SEC filing
10-Q2025-06-302025-07-180001065280-25-000323SEC filing
10-Q2025-03-312025-04-180001065280-25-000176SEC filing
10-Q2024-09-302024-10-180001065280-24-000287SEC filing
10-Q2024-06-302024-07-190001065280-24-000200SEC filing
10-Q2024-03-312024-04-220001065280-24-000128SEC filing
10-Q2023-09-302023-10-200001065280-23-000273SEC filing
10-Q2023-06-302023-07-210001065280-23-000198SEC filing
10-Q2023-03-312023-04-210001065280-23-000120SEC filing
10-Q2022-09-302022-10-200001065280-22-000368SEC filing

Research Structure

Executive Summary

Condense the long-term Netflix investment case into a clear bull, base, and bear framework.

Outputs

  • Investment thesis
  • Moat assessment
  • Risk summary
  • Rating framework

Sources

  • Latest Form 10-K
  • Latest shareholder letter
  • Management commentary

Company History

Trace Netflix from DVD-by-mail to streaming, originals, international scale, advertising, sports, gaming, and AI.

Outputs

  • Timeline
  • Strategic decision map
  • Management transition notes

Sources

  • IPO S-1
  • Annual reports
  • Shareholder letters

Financial History

Build a complete annual financial database from IPO through the latest fiscal year.

Outputs

  • Income statement
  • Balance sheet
  • Cash flow statement
  • Margin and return metrics
  • CAGR calculations

Sources

  • SEC 10-K filings
  • Company annual reports
  • XBRL company facts

Quarterly Analysis

Build a quarterly operating and financial history for growth, margin, EPS, and free cash flow trends.

Outputs

  • Quarterly revenue
  • Quarterly operating margin
  • Quarterly net income and EPS
  • Quarterly free cash flow

Sources

  • SEC 10-Q filings
  • Quarterly shareholder letters
  • Earnings releases

Business Model

Explain how Netflix converts subscribers, engagement, pricing, ads, and content scale into cash generation.

Outputs

  • Revenue architecture
  • Cost structure
  • Unit economics
  • Pricing power framework

Sources

  • Annual reports
  • Shareholder letters
  • Investor presentations

Subscribers

Analyze member growth, regional mix, ARPU, and the post-2025 reporting transition.

Outputs

  • Historical members
  • Regional subscribers
  • Regional ARPU
  • Reporting metric change explanation

Sources

  • Shareholder letters
  • Annual reports
  • Segment disclosures

Content Economics

Separate content cash investment, content assets, amortization, licensed content, and originals.

Outputs

  • Content asset schedule
  • Amortization trend
  • Cash content spend
  • Accounting explanation

Sources

  • 10-K notes
  • Cash flow statements
  • Management discussion and analysis

Balance Sheet

Evaluate liquidity, leverage, debt maturity, equity evolution, and balance sheet flexibility.

Outputs

  • Cash and investments
  • Debt history
  • Debt maturity schedule
  • Equity and leverage metrics

Sources

  • 10-K balance sheets
  • Debt footnotes
  • Cash flow statements

Cash Flow

Analyze operating cash flow, investing cash flow, financing cash flow, and free cash flow conversion.

Outputs

  • OCF bridge
  • FCF bridge
  • Cash conversion history
  • Capital efficiency metrics

Sources

  • 10-K cash flow statements
  • 10-Q cash flow statements
  • Shareholder letters

AI Strategy

Assess Netflix's AI usage in recommendations, localization, ads, production workflows, and future product surfaces.

Outputs

  • AI use case map
  • Personalization moat analysis
  • Advertising AI analysis
  • Production workflow opportunities

Sources

  • Annual reports
  • Product disclosures
  • Management commentary

Competition

Compare Netflix with Disney, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, YouTube, Max, TikTok, and other attention platforms.

Outputs

  • Competitive matrix
  • Pricing comparison
  • Content strategy comparison
  • Profitability comparison

Sources

  • Peer filings
  • Company disclosures
  • Industry datasets

Valuation

Track valuation cycles across P/E, EV/Sales, EV/EBIT, EV/FCF, FCF yield, and stock price drawdowns.

Outputs

  • Historical multiple tables
  • Valuation cycle charts
  • Stock price context
  • Peer valuation comparison

Sources

  • Market data
  • SEC financials
  • Share count history

Forecast

Build 2026-2035 bear, base, and bull financial scenarios.

Outputs

  • Revenue forecast
  • Operating margin forecast
  • EPS forecast
  • FCF forecast
  • Ads, gaming, and sports scenarios

Sources

  • Historical financial database
  • Management outlook
  • Scenario assumptions

DCF

Translate the scenario model into intrinsic value ranges and sensitivity tables.

Outputs

  • DCF model
  • Terminal value bridge
  • Discount rate sensitivity
  • Terminal growth sensitivity

Sources

  • Forecast model
  • Market data
  • Capital structure data

Investment Conclusion

Summarize strengths, weaknesses, moat durability, expected returns, and suitable investor profile.

Outputs

  • Final rating
  • Expected CAGR range
  • Key monitoring metrics
  • Risk/reward summary

Sources

  • All completed sections
  • Forecast model
  • DCF model

Source Audit

Second-pass citation audit map for the Netflix research hub. SEC filings are treated as authoritative for historical financials, subscribers, regional revenue, content economics, and filing inventory. Market valuation history uses Yahoo Finance adjusted close data joined to SEC fundamentals.

AreaCoveragePrimary SourceStatusNote
SEC filing inventoryRegistration statements, 10-K, 10-K/A, 10-Q, and 10-Q/A filingsSEC company submissions APIcompleteFiling list is generated from Netflix CIK 0001065280 and preserves amended filings.
Annual financial databaseFY2002-FY2025SEC company facts plus audited 10-K statement tablespartialFY2009-FY2025 use SEC XBRL company facts. FY2002-FY2008 are manual audited 10-K extractions and remain flagged for source-tie second pass.
Quarterly financial database2009 Q1 through 2026 Q2SEC company facts quarterly frames and annual filingspartialQuarterly frames or YTD differences supply flows. Q2 2026 revenue, operating income, EPS, OCF, capex and FCF were reconciled to the shareholder letter. Q4 diluted EPS remains intentionally null.
Subscriber and regional economicsFY2019-FY2025 streaming revenue; FY2019-FY2024 memberships and ARMNetflix audited 10-K regional tablescompleteFY2025 regional membership and ARM are null because Netflix changed disclosure and no longer provides the same regional membership table.
Content economicsFY2020-FY2025Netflix audited 10-K content asset and contractual obligation notescompleteDataset is regenerated from 10-K HTML tables and includes content assets, amortization, liabilities, obligations, and tax incentive benefits where disclosed.
Forecast and DCFFY2026-FY2035 scenariosQ2 2026 SEC shareholder letter and Hobite assumptionscompleteOctober 4 update uses a user-specified $67 price, Q2 split-adjusted diluted shares, and company guidance. $10.5B normalized FCF and the $2B after-tax one-time adjustment are analyst assumptions. Equity DCF excludes elapsed-year cash; debt is not subtracted twice. Historical prices remain unchanged.
Historical valuationFY2020-FY2025 year-end multiplesYahoo Finance chart API and Netflix SEC annual financialscompleteFY2020-FY2022 diluted shares are normalized to the same split-adjusted basis as Yahoo adjusted historical prices. Yahoo's browser history page may block automated checks, so the chart API is the audit endpoint.
Company commentary and investor communicationsQuarterly earnings and shareholder communication linksNetflix investor relationsneeds-reviewIR page is linked for reader reference; local automated fetch may be blocked by Cloudflare, so SEC filings remain the source of record.

Publication QA

October 4, 2026 update: production build, TypeScript, Q2 financial reconciliation, valuation calculation checks and English/Chinese rendered-route checks pass. Earlier historical-source audit warnings remain applicable.

CheckStatusEvidence
TypeScript diagnosticspassProject diagnostics completed through the TypeScript compiler API with 0 errors.
Local module importspassAll local imports referenced by the Netflix route resolve to files in the research route directory.
Route section coveragepassPage renders report narrative, chart dashboard, DCF, historical valuation, subscribers, content economics, financial databases, filing inventory, research structure, source audit, source system, and chart inventory.
Source URL shapepassStatic scan found 219 embedded source URLs and no malformed URL strings.
Representative SEC endpointspassSEC submissions API, SEC company facts API, and latest Netflix 10-K archive document returned HTTP 200 during automated QA.
Market data endpointpassYahoo Finance chart API returned historical adjusted close data for NFLX; public browser history page may block automated requests.
Netflix IR endpointwarningNetflix IR is linked for reader navigation but returned HTTP 403 to automated fetch, consistent with Cloudflare protection. SEC filings remain the source of record.
npm build commandpassnpm run build completed successfully, including TypeScript and both Netflix routes. node scripts/test-netflix-update.mjs validates Q2 values, normalization, share basis, DCF arithmetic and generated English/Chinese HTML.

Source System

Chart Inventory

Annual financials

28

Revenue, Gross profit, Operating income, Net income, Diluted EPS, Revenue CAGR, EPS CAGR

Margins and returns

16

Gross margin, Operating margin, Net margin, ROIC, ROE, FCF margin

Cash flow and capital allocation

18

Operating cash flow, Capital expenditures, Free cash flow, Debt issuance and repayment, Share repurchases, Share count

Subscribers and regions

18

Global paid memberships, Regional memberships, Regional ARPU, Subscriber mix, Revenue per member

Content economics

12

Content assets, Content amortization, Cash content investment, Licensed vs original content discussion charts

Valuation and forecast

18

P/E, EV/Sales, EV/EBIT, EV/FCF, FCF yield, 2035 scenario revenue, DCF sensitivity